One thing investors will be hoping they can rely on, amidst all the uncertainty over tariffs, the economy and interest rates, is a solid trading update from JPMorgan Chase (JPM:NYSE) when it reports first-quarter earnings on 11 April.

Results for the final quarter of 2024 were driven not by the core business of loans and deposits – average loans were up 2% on the previous year, as were average deposits – but by investment banking, where fees rose almost 50%, and markets, where revenues were 21% higher.

At that stage, chief executive Jamie Dimon was upbeat about the outlook: ‘The US economy has been resilient: unemployment remains relatively low, and consumer spending stayed healthy, including during the holiday season.

‘Businesses are more optimistic about the economy, and they are encouraged by expectations for a more pro-growth agenda and improved collaboration between government and business.’

While Dimon foresaw persistent inflation being a potential risk, he couldn’t have foreseen the effect on corporate and consumer confidence of the unexpected policy decisions taken in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency.

Businesses are pricing in worst-case scenarios, and chief executives and finance directors are pausing spending decisions, freezing hiring and lowering guidance ‘not because their business is falling apart but because the range of possible outcomes is too wide to plan around,’ as one observer commented.

As it stands, analysts are expecting JPMorgan to post a 4% increase in first-quarter revenue to $43.7 billion and a 3% increase in EPS (earnings per share) to $4.57, so the bar isn’t set very high.

However, for the full year analysts have penciled in a 10% increase in EPS to $18.31 so investors will be watching carefully for any downward revision to the outlook, especially as the shares have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the last one, three and five years. 

US UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

QUARTERLY RESULTS

8 April: Walgreen Boots Alliance

10 April: CarMax, Progressive

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