As we have been documenting in Shares over the last few weeks, the big winner in the supermarket sector over the last year or so has been Tesco (TSCO), which has been steadily growing its market share at the expense of Asda and Morrisons while simultaneously holding off the threat from the discounters Aldi and Lidl.

That hasn't prevented a recent sell-off in the company's shares as investors react to the potential for Asda to launch a price war in the sector, something Tesco management may be expected to address when it posts full-year results on 10 April.

The company’s market share has risen from 27.3% a year ago to 27.9% as of the latest survey of grocery spending by consultants Kantar covering the 12 weeks to 23 March.

At the same time, Asda and Morrison’s combined share has fallen from 22.3% to 21% while the discounters account for 18.8% of spending against 18.1% a year ago.

As well as introducing an ‘Aldi price-match’ campaign, Tesco has leveraged the growth in its Clubcard loyalty scheme to bring ever more shoppers through its doors, while at the same time its Finest range continues to enjoy strong demand.

In its third-quarter and Christmas trading update the firm said it had achieved its highest UK market share since 2016 thanks to net switching gains from other supermarkets as it positioned itself to be the cheapest full-line grocer for a second year running.

When it reports its results for the full year to February 2025, analysts are predicting a 15% increase in group sales from £61.6 billion to almost £71 billion.

Operating profit is expected to rise by between 8% and 9% to a shade over £3 billion, above the firm’s guidance as of the third quarter, as it reinvests some its sales gains in lowering prices to drive volume growth, while EPS (earnings per share) are seen rising by 15% from 23.4p to 26.9p. 

UK UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

FULL-YEAR RESULTS

8 April: JTC, Property Franchise, Staffline

9 April: Churchill China, Oxford Biomedica, Saga

10 April: Brave Bison, Hvivo, Inspects Group, Tesco, US Solar Fund

FIRST-YEAR RESULTS

7 April: Applied Nutrition

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

9 April: JD Sports Fashion

‹ Previous2025-04-03Next ›