It has been an unusually unsettled time for shareholders in the UK’s largest supermarket group, with the shares falling heavily in mid-March after rival Asda warned it would start another price war.

The stock tumbled again in mid-April when the company revealed operating profit for the current financial year could be as much as 14% lower than last year at £2.7 billion depending on how much ‘firepower’ management invests in prices to maintain market share.

Therefore, analysts and investors will want to know from the firm’s first-quarter trading statement on 12 June whether £2.7 billion was a worst-case scenario or whether it now represents the base case, as the current consensus operating profit forecast is £2.9 billion.

Retail sales in April were stronger than expected, primarily driven by a rebound in food store spending at the expense of non-food.

However, as chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club Matt Swanell pointed out, there has been ‘a puzzling inconsistency’ in official data this year with retail sales seemingly outstripping consumer spending.

A clearer picture emerged from the Kantar till roll data for the four weeks to 18 May, with grocery sales up 4.4% thanks to food price inflation of 4.1%, the highest level since February 2024.

As consumers feel the pinch, they are increasingly buying own-brand groceries and looking for deals, but there are fewer promotions than usual.

What retailers are doing instead is trimming prices – according to Kantar, 80% of promotional spending has been straightforward price cuts rather than BOGOFs (buy-one-get-one-free).

In terms of market share, over 12 weeks Tesco improved its take to 28% from 27.6% a year ago, but it was the discounters Aldi and Lidl who gained the most ground, accounting for a combined 19.2% of the market against 18.2% last May. 

UK UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

FULL-YEAR RESULTS

10 June: GB Group, Oxford Instruments, Vianet

11 June: Fuller Smith & Turner, Molten Ventures, Revolution Beauty Group

12 June: Halma, Mind Gym, Motorpoint, Norcros, PayPoint 

INTERIMS

10 June: Diales Group, Porvair

12 June: Benchmark Holdings, IDOX

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

12 June: Tesco

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