Trade war uncertainties are weighing on sentiment towards consumer-facing stocks, and investors will be able to take the temperature of the all-important US consumer when Walmart (WMT:NYSE) reports first-quarter earnings on 15 May.

Given the world’s biggest retailer’s sheer scale it should be able to grab greater market share by absorbing some of the pain from tariffs and widening the price gap to its competitors.

Investors should see evidence of further market share gains in groceries and general merchandise from Walmart, which despite the volatile consumer backdrop, reaffirmed its 3% to 4% first quarter sales growth guidance at its ICM (Investment Community Meeting) on 9 April.

Reassuringly, Walmart left full-year 2026 sales and operating profit growth guidance unchanged although the first-quarter range was widened due to prevailing uncertainties including ‘the desire to maintain flexibility to invest in price’ as tariffs are implemented.

‘History tells us that when we lean into these periods of uncertainty, Walmart emerges on the other side with greater share and a stronger business,’ commented chief financial officer John David Rainey at the investor meeting.

One of the few retailers capable of competing with Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ), Walmart is undergoing a technology transformation which analysts at Jefferies believe could drive high-single-digit to low-double-digit percentage annualised operating profit growth.

‘Walmart should continue to gain market share and leverage technology, AI, and alternative revenue streams to improve margins,’ argues the broker. 

US UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

QUARTERLY RESULTS

12 May: Fox Corp, Simon Property

14 May: Cisco

15 May: Applied Materials, Deere & Company, Walmart

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