Trainline (TRN) 366p

Gain to date: 11% 

Since we flagged the stock’s appeal last February, Trainline shares have been steadily rising and the firm has become the number one travel app in Europe.

The online ticketing platform has shown investors that it has truly recovered both from the pandemic and from the disruption caused by UK rail strikes last year.

Recent results saw net ticket sales rise 13% year-on-year to £3.01 billion for the six months ending 31 August.

WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE WE SAID BUY?

Since the company first listed, investors have been aware of government plans to launch a centralised system to consolidate individual train operators’ ticket websites, and last week the topic raised its head again, sending the shares down more than 8% on the day (22 January).

Analysts at Swiss bank UBS called the market reaction ‘exaggerated’, and we are inclined to agree - looking at the government’s plans, it said it would work with third-party retailers to ensure a competitive environment, which suggests Trainline will. be included in any discussions.

‘There will be an industry-wide consultation on the Rail Reform Bill in the coming weeks, but we note that the process of legislating and establishing GBR (Great British Railways), as well as nationalising the carriers, is expected to take several years,’ said Shore Capital analysts in their analysis of the situation.

WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS DO NOW?

We remain positive about the prospects for the online ticketing platform and think investors should sit tight ahead of the full-year trading update in mid-March. 

Trainline has a dominant market share in the UK, with 18 million customers and counting according to chief executive Jody Ford, and a growing market share in Europe with combined net sales growth across Spain and Italy of 23% for the six months ending 31 August.

The group recently raised its full year 2025 guidance and now expects annual growth in net ticket sales year-on-year of between 12% and 14% and year-on-year revenue growth between 11% and 13%.

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