Trainline

(TRN) 333p

Gain to date: 2.1%Market cap: £1.5 billion

We first flagged rail and booking site and app Trainline (TRN) in February, excited by the potential of a business which has already acquired a 60% share of the UK online market and has tapped into the growing European market.

It is now the most downloaded rail app in Europe with international consumer net ticket sales recently surpassing £1 billion.

WHAT HAPPENED SINCE WE LAST SAID BUY?

Trainline shares have endured a mixed showing. On 3 May the company reported a positive set of results for the year ending 29 February – revenue was up 21% to £397 million and net ticket sales were up 22% year-on-year to £5.3 billion, at the top end of guidance.

Despite ongoing rail strikes in the UK, Trainline unveiled a strong outturn in the six months to 31 August (12 September) with performance tracking ahead of expectations, helping to give the stock a meaningful lift.

Trainline raised its full year 2025 guidance – which translated into a rough 5% upgrade to Shore Capital’s adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest taxation, depreciation, and amortisation) forecast for the 12-month period.

Group revenue increased by 16% to £229 million for the six months ending 31 August and net ticket sales increased year-on-year by 13% to £3 billion.

WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS DO NOW?

We remain upbeat about Trainline due to the rapid progress it is making into Europe, particularly in Spain and Italy, and would back it to regain some of the momentum it lost earlier in the year.

France and Germany are in decline, with net ticket sales falling by 3% year-on-year in the first half of its financial year, but that’s due to a previously flagged pause in marketing and deprioritisation of the countries by the group.

Trainline has been able to position itself as a straightforward way to navigate the complex travel system and get good deals. Shore Capital analysts said that Trainline has an unmatched presence in the UK which will grow further due to the digitalisation of the industry. There are also opportunities for the company to increase its market share in Europe and tap into inbound foreign travel. 

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