1. BRICS expansion: The BRICS summit in South Africa in August announced the expansion of the group to include potentially six new members in early 2024. The BRICS+ grouping continues to focus on building a multipolar world and giving a voice to developing countries, also known as the Global South. The inclusion of three Middle Eastern countries has implications for global energy security as it raises the group’s share of global oil reserves to 41%. It will also increase the relevance of the New Development Bank, the BRICS multilateral lending organisation which has loans and investments of $21 billion. The expansion of BRICS may create new investment opportunities that our on-the-ground presence can uncover.

2. Impact of deflation on Chinese consumption: Chinese consumer prices declined 0.9% in July, and producer prices dropped 4.4%. There is increasing anecdotal evidence that Chinese consumers are postponing purchasing decisions for goods due to expectations of falling prices. This contrasts with the continued appetite among consumers to spend on services. The consumer price index service component remains in positive territory, rising 1.2% in July. Travel, leisure and health services are proving to be more resilient parts of the Chinese economy. Nevertheless, until confidence improves in the real estate sector, Chinese households are expected to remain cautious in their spending decisions.

3. Global trade: The world’s largest shipping company recently revised down its forecast for global container demand, a proxy for global trade, to between 1% growth and a 4% contraction. The forecast is consistent with the 18% decline in an index of global container shipping costs this year. Given the importance of trade and manufacturing to emerging markets, the continuation of the destocking cycle is a concern. Nevertheless, in emerging markets there are new growth opportunities, including renewable energy, the electrification of transport and semiconductors.

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