Inchcape shares fall on weak organic volume growth forecast for 2026

Inchcape PLC shares fell on Tuesday after it said it expects organic volume growth towards the lower end of its guidance range in 2026.

Shares in Inchcape were down 8.4% at 797.00 pence on Tuesday morning, giving it a market capitalisation of £2.85 billion. The wider FTSE 250 index was down 2.3%.

The London-based automobile distributor said pretax profit edged down 1.9% to £406 million in 2025 from £414 million in 2024, as revenue fell 1.8% to £9.10 billion from £9.26 billion.

Inchcape reported diluted earnings per share attributable to the owners of the parent of 71.6 pence, down 30% from 101.9p, but diluted EPS from continuing operations climbed 9.1% to 71.6p from 65.6p.

Inchcape said volumes were up 3% in 2025, driven by market share gains and distribution contract wins. Organic revenue was 1% higher with improved momentum in the second half of the year, while reported revenue was hit by currency headwinds.

Inchcape declared a final dividend of 22.8 pence per share for a full-year payout of 32.3p, up 13% from 28.5p in 2024.

Separately, the firm launched a share buyback programme for up to £175 million, to be conducted by UBS Group AG.

The share buyback programme will be completed by March 5, 2027. The company completed a £250 million buyback programme last week.

Looking ahead, Inchcape said it expects organic volume growth towards the lower end of its 3% to 5% guidance range in 2026, with performance weighted towards the second half of the year.

It expects ‘resilient’ operating margins of around 6%. The adjusted operating margin narrowed to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.3% in 2024.

Inchcape also forecasts free cashflow conversion of around 100% and adjusted earnings per share growth of more than 10%.

‘During a transformative year in the automotive sector in FY 2025, Inchcape’s diversified and scaled business model delivered results in line with our medium-term targets, reporting double-digit EPS growth. Our performance in 2025 was driven by good momentum in our Americas and Europe and Africa regions and we are taking actions to address challenges in [Asia Pacific],’ said Chief Executive Duncan Tait.

‘Looking ahead, we expect to deliver a year of growth in FY 2026, including adjusted EPS growth of [more than] 10%, with volume growth, resilient margins, supported by strong execution and discipline on costs, and cash conversion.’

Inchcape will provide a trading update for the first quarter on April 30.

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